War on Iran

February 6, 2006

The United States has not taken the “military option off the table” and has said so openly for the past two years and more so now, that Iran is proceeding with manufacturing materials usable in a nuclear weapon. Iran claims it is their right to proceed with their programs and the West says it is not. Western governments are especially worried because Iran has armed and willingly helped terrorists in the Middle East and elsewhere. Now their new president is unpredictable and his rhetoric much like North Korea's.

The distinction is that Iran will launch missiles at Israel and possibly Iraq if they are attacked from the outside. They have test fired several of them last year and may now have a small nuclear devices attached; not ones they made, but those bought on the black market, probably from Russia.

The U.S. and the E.U. have repeatedly admonished Iran to suspend their nuclear program and even referred them to a U.N. council. This is more for show, because words and U.N. sanctions are unlikely to offer any credible deterrence but it shows the importance of the situation.

The U.S. and its partners are probably prepared to backup the military option. After all, it is no use threatening, if you are not going to back it up. Realistically, a prudent nation or collective of nations must always have contingency plans, including a pre-emptive war plan to attack a potential enemy such as Iran should it get too close to constructing a nuclear weapon.

It seems now is the time.

Who is the core "response group" to an Iranian pre-emptive attack?

As usual, expect the U.S. to necessarily lead the attack and be publicly allied with Israel. The E.U. will help and may acknowledge their participation. Expect Turkey and Lebanon to be silent allies and Arab nations such as Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, and Jordan to offer tacit prior approval but will never admit any alliance or knowledge.

But what would such a plan entail? 

No one will say, for obvious reasons, but the response would have to be very swift with absolute destruction of any Iranian nuclear and military capability. The attack must be so devastating that Iran will no longer have a nuclear capability and very limited military infrastructure.

The war plan will be in several parts starting with pre-war operations such as:

-  Completion of the war plan several months before the military action. The war plan should be complete by now with military and civilian leaders confident it will work.

-  Cloaked military readiness drills with allies, probably conducted last year and refined to elicit the most devastating results.

-  Special ops conducted the past couple years to infiltrate Iranian military and political systems to generate Intel and cultivate spies.

-  Placement of explosive devices, electronic disruptors and transmitting beacons to immediately and easily destroy targets at the start of overt military action.

-  Increased remote surveillance with drones and satellites to insure effective command and control and holding special military exercises near Iran. Basically saber rattling augmented by the words and concepts of imminent threat and unilateral action as a defensive measure.

The overt war plan probably includes simultaneous strikes on:

-  Hardened nuclear sites, using dozens of small nuclear weapons to bust through and destroy

    those sites. Expect radiation to spread locally perhaps regionally.

-  Iranian radar and surveillance systems using conventional high energy explosives. 

-  Any identified missile sites and ships with cruise missiles.

-  Military airports to disable any response by their warplanes.

-  Power and communication systems used by the military.

-  Military ships, roadways, etc.

The Iranian War Plan will not include U.S. ground forces to be sent into Iran. However, expect our forces to stay at the borders as a show of force and to stop aid going into Iran. The primary military force will be the Navy and Air Force using stealth and conventional bombers and missiles.

Expect temporary sea blockades to keep vessels out of critical oil shipping areas to prevent disruption of oil shipments out of the area. Sunken ships are very effective in blocking routes.

Do not expect overt strikes on civilian targets, except against airports and transportation facilities when and where necessary. Also, do not expect strikes on oil producing areas so as to preserve oil output. We will avoid major power centers except those directly supporting military complexes.

Expect Israel to actively and aggressively support all U.S. operations including air force attacks and missile strikes. Also expect them to quickly and decisively deploy troops into Lebanon and Syria.

If a War on Iran starts, it will support Christian desires for their “end-times” scenario. Bush has said he has a divine mission in the Middle East and his supporters believe he is "theirs in Christ".

May God help us all.