The Iran Problem

March 13, 2005

Iran is making nuclear fuel and plans to build nuclear devices to make good on threats to destroy Israel and remove U.S./ Western presence in the area.

In response, Europe has been tying to negotiate Iran into a corner but they are too sly for that. Iran is very familiar with Western diplomacy and how to avoid compliance or make deals they wouldn't honor anyway.

Now Bush has allied himself with the Europeans to help put pressure on Iran to give up its nuclear program and aspirations for a weapon. All of this is a good,  but it won't work.

Iranians have a moral compass that tells them to ignore Westerners. They also think they are the "U.S. of the Middle East" out to save fellow Muslims from the infidels.

The future is bleak for Iran. Too bad for all sides.

Iran might be impressed with:

The two or three aircraft carrier groups in or nearing the Mediterranean Sea and the Persian Gulf;

U.S. military air bases in Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar,  and on the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia or

The thousands of battle harden U.S. troops just miles away who can invade Iran at a moments notice,

or they might not.

What will impress them will be force. The Middle East keeps score based on who physically wins and not on diplomacy or threats of military action. So, the "military option" will be used very soon.

However, timing for this option depends on:

Iraqi stability so U.S. forces are free to go elsewhere;

Stability between the PLO and their terrorist allies and Israel so Israelis can concentrate other things and 

Improved U.S. bunker busting technology.

Several years ago, Bush allegedly approved development of small nuclear bunker busting weapons, the after effects of which, would be easily masked by a strike on nuclear facilities with radioactive materials. It would be difficult to prove we used a nuclear weapon.

A diplomatic solution is unlikely so the West will "play to win" as defined by the Middle East and Iran. To win, it will physically destroy Iran's nuclear capability. Score a point for our side.

A successful attack would be "good thing" except for the death, destruction, radiation and monetary costs. Darn, there is always a catch.