Symbolic Iraqi Elections

January 26, 2005

Much has been said of the impending national elections in Iraq on January 30th. The Administration sees them as a significant milestone and believes Iraq will finally have self-rule and a democracy in the form of a new interim government after that date. Certainly, the election will form an interim government but what will that really prove in the long term?  How will that government independently secure the safety and freedom of its citizens?

Realistically, the election is just a symbol of what America wants, that is to say to everyone, there is a democracy in Iraq. As if saying it makes it so.

There will be a low voter turn out for the elections and despite this, Bush will claim it a success just because it was held. Nonsense. A legitimate democracy requires a good voter turnout representing all groups. It also needs an election free from U.S. and insurgent influences.

This will not happen on Sunday. Maybe never. Democracy at the end of a gun isn't really democracy. Not a working democracy anyway.

The cornerstone for Iraqi democracy is security for its citizens and government. Right now, the U.S. must prop them up like we did in South Vietnam, hoping Iraqis in the future will be strong enough to carry on. Right now, Iraqi security forces are weak, few in number and not loyal to a US backed Iraqi government. The short term future is bleak.

Iraqis do not have the collective will to rule themselves because it requires a full time concerted effort to work together in compromise for the benefit of all citizens. It also means its citizens must put down their weapons.

The truth is, Iraq will devolve into a dictatorship within a few years because of security problems or worse yet, a civil war will erupt ending with a Saddam-like dictator. An interim Iraqi election in January 2005 will not change that.