The Iraq War Is Part of a Deadly Terrorist Circle

October 2, 2004

Trying to establish Western democracy in Iraq will fail. The goal is unrealistic based on the cultural and religious characteristics of the Iraqi people. A neutral Muslim theocracy is the best we can expect but it doesn’t appear this is U.S. policy.

There are no effective security plans for Iraq and the U.S. cannot train enough Iraqi forces before the insurgency overwhelms them. Simply responding to one crisis after another is not a coherent plan. Not wanting failure as an option, the U.S. will have to increase manpower in Iraq and spend years do it. And it will still fail.

Underestimating the insurgency was the fatal mistake.  It has grown significantly in 2004 and will continue to grow in number and complexity. The next step will be disparate groups joining forces against the U.S. which is seen as an occupier. Occupation is unifying and very effective for nationalists and terrorists.

As the insurgency grows, the U.S. will loose control of large sparsely populated areas, followed by one city and town after another. The enemy strength will grow relentlessly because its power comes from citizen participation and support.

Before the war, Iraq was not the key to Middle East peace or terrorism but it may now be. It is now less peaceful and has terrorists fighting in principle with Iraqi insurgents. Terrorists, presumably from Egypt, Iran and Pakistan are well trained and their presence magnify the effectiveness of the Iraqi insurgency.

The US. cannot win against "home grown" insurgents who base their actions on religion and patriotism.  Currently, it recruits its members from gangs, criminals and thugs, marginalized youth, religious fanatics and remnants of Saddam’s loyalists. This becomes the first de facto nationalist movement in Iraq focusing on the US and its puppet Iraqi government.

The second step of the movement will follow. Expect U.S. trained Iraqi officials, police and military to secretly ally themselves with the insurgency.  Then expect open defiance as power shifts to them.

Finally, expect the general population to support those in power over the U.S. This is when the U.S. will have to leave and admit the Vietnamization of Iraq has failed.

After the U.S. leaves, a new Iraqi civil war will begin in earnest. Don’t be surprised we come "full circle" in Iraq, where the minority again takes control and a new Saddam emerges just a ruthless and violent as the last. Only this time, Iraq will be the center of Middle East terrorism and possibly terrorism worldwide with a powerful new regime supporting it.