Middle East Nuclear Standoff

November 13, 2003

Recently the United States shipped "Harpoon" cruise missiles with nuclear warheads to a military base on Diego Garcia an island in the Indian Ocean. From there, most were transferred to Israel's three German-built "Dolphin-class" submarines. This completed and activated Israel's new seaborne nuclear weapons program which places one submarine in the Persian Gulf, one in the Mediterranean, and the third on "standby".

As expected Israel, denied this happened but Israel has never admitted to any nuclear weapons. However, Israel's nuclear threat is real and capable. It continually works to improve and test its weapons systems and successfully completed test launches of its cruise missile systems in  May 2000 in the Indian Ocean.

Israel is the Middle East's only nuclear power and with its new seaborne capability, it can more easily strike any of its Arab neighbors. One target could be Iran, presumably because of its desire for a nuclear weapon. A preemptive strike is more likely because Israel has a first-strike or anticipatory self-defense attitude similar to the United States.

The current U.S. Administration, has gone further than any other. They openly support possible preemptive strikes and are creating a credible nuclear standoff using Israel as a proxy. The Middle East will become more dangerous since countries in this area are quick to use conventional weapons and most like will do the same with nuclear ones.

The United Nations is also part of this plan through its IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) which oversees nuclear issues. The agency supports the principle of 'balanced deterrence' in the Middle East by not credibly addressing Israeli nuclear weapons. This in turn, will insure additional nuclear weapon development, for if the IAEA accepts Israeli nuclear weapons it must also support weapons built by Iran and others. The U.N. then becomes trapped by the Cold War MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) policy in an area historically very unstable. Not good news but inevitable.

Further, the Arab League is nervous because no Arab country has a nuclear weapon. Their fears are compounded because Israeli missiles are controlled Ariel Sharon, a historical enemy quick to use military power. Currently, they do not openly advocate an Arabic nuclear standoff with Israel and are working diplomatically to address this issue. Unfortunately, the League will fail and it will be forced to support the U.N.'s "balanced deterrence" or M.A.D.

We have an interesting situation. Nuclear weapons might not be used if M.A.D. exists but given the history of the Middle East the stand off won't last long. Further, the Middle East is in transition to M.A.D  and this makes the situation even more difficult..

The United States does not see Israel as a threat and is comfortable with its i nuclear weapons capability. M.A.D. is undesirable because it would mean an Arab nation with nuclear weapons. Time is short until Iran has a nuclear weapon and this will force the U.S. to decide on a preemptive strike.

The Middle East is more dangerous than ever. Historical animosities dictate what people and nations do and their hatred will probably start a regional nuclear war.

This scenario certainly sounds crazy to some but not solving the "Middle East problem" is even crazier.