Arab Reaction to Saddam's Capture Won't be Positive

December 14, 2003

Most Arabs are happy and relieved by the capture of Saddam Hussein. Decades of oppression and death are now over. Even so, many Arabs in Iraq and the area do not see his capture as something worth celebrating. They see it is as even more U.S. domination of the Arab culture and the Middle East.

◊    First, many feel Iraqis should have captured Saddam, as a symbol of their unity as a people. They resent the positive spin the capture gives the U.S.

◊    Many Iraqis allied with Saddam  feel his capture finalizes their fates in the hands of a new Iraqi government.  A free Saddam meant that one day they could regain their power and control in Iraq. Now that is gone. Many will turn to violence especially if facing imprisonment or death.

◊    Many Arabs see Saddam as a symbol of defiance against the U.S. They see him as they only leader willing to stand up to the U.S. and its allies, especially Israel. The emasculation of this symbol means they too are neutered. They see is as even more U.S. dominance in the Middle East.

◊    Countries formerly allied with Saddam will have to admit, at least to themselves that "its over". They no longer have an ally, to help them exert their dominance in the region and in their countries.  They realize it is possible to remove a regime as strong as Saddam's and THEY were not as strong as he was. The capture will help popular resistance within in their countries against their regimes. Unfortunately, fearful governments increase oppression to maintain control.

◊    Palestinian Arabs are not happy because he was a symbol of Arab strength against America and Israel. This will mean emotional outbursts and violence to show solidarity for Saddam. Their fight will go on because Arab resistance to the U.S. and Israel is greater than Saddam or his Iraqi allies.

Resentment of the U.S. in  the Middle East will continue. There will be more bombs, grenades, rockets and fire fights in many places, especially in Iraq. Saddam's capture will help resistance groups gather more extremist converts. It will also help resistance in general.

For many Iraqis, the capture will strengthen their belief the US must go... now, and at all costs. The resistance in Iraq will be re-characterized as a populist uprising to an occupier.

In the short term, the Middle East and Iraq will be more dangerous to our troops.

Iraq's transition to self rule will continue but violent resistance groups will want a part in the new government just as like other Iraqi groups. The difference is, they will punctuate their demands with death and destruction.